Democrats would have to pull an inside straight to gain control of the House

It's Friday afternoon. As it stands now, Democrats would basically have to pull an inside straight in the remaining undecided races to gain a razor thin majority one- or two-seat majority in the House of Representatives. That's unlikely, but still mathematically possible.

Going into the election, the party breakdown in the House stood at 220 Republicans and 212 Democrats. There were three vacancies that came up this year – Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin resigned and two Democrats, Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee of Texas and Bill Pascrell of New Jersey, died.

Since their districts were not considered competitive that meant that Democrats needed to flip four seats to regain control of the House. So far, Republicans have flipped four seats (two each in Pennsylvania and North Carolina) and Democrats three (all in New York). That's a net gain of one seat for Republicans.

As of Friday afternoon, CBS News was predicting that Republicans would win 215 seats and Democrats 208 based on projected and preliminary results. CBS characterized House control as Lean Republican.

The Associated Press had called 211 House races for Republicans and 199 for Democrats, with 25 races not called yet.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told NY1's "Inside City Hall" on Thursday evening: "We still have a clear pathway to taking back the majority."

He added: "Of course, that runs through Arizona and Oregon and five races that are flip opportunities in California that are too close to call and too early to call."

Basically, Democratic incumbents would have to hold all their seats in the remaining closely contested races, and somehow flip five Republican-held seats.

More than a dozen key races have not yet been called, and several of them are considered toss-ups. 

Here are some of the races that will decide control of the House. Basically the Democrats need to hold all of their seats and flip five Republican seats. The vote counts are based on figures published in The New York Times.

Alaska (at large) — Republican Nick Begich leads Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola by a margin of 49.5% to 45.4% with only 76% of the vote counted. Alaska has ranked choice voting so a candidate needs to get 50% of the vote on the first round to be declared the winner.

Then there are at least half a dozen California districts which remain too close to call and will take several days to count:

California (CD13) – Republican incumbent John Duarte leads Democrat Adam Gray by 2 percentage points (58% counted).

California (CD21) – Democratic incumbent Jim Costa leads Republican Michael Maher by 1.1 percentage points (62% counted).

California (CD27) – Republican incumbent Mike Garcia leads Democrat George Whitesides by 1.4 percentage points (73% counted).

California (CD41) – Republican incumbent Ken Calvert leads Democrat Will Rollins by 3 percentage points (54% counted).

California (CD45) - Republican incumbent Michelle Steel leads Democrat Derek Tran by 4 percentage points (72% counted).

California (CD47) - This is an open seat previously held by Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, who made an unsuccessful Senate bid. Republican Scott Baugh leads Democrat Dave Min by 0.22 percentage points (76% counted).

California (CD49) - Democratic incumbent Mike Levin leads Republican Matt Gunderson by 2 percentage points (75% counted).

And here are some of the other races:

Colorado (CD8) – Democratic incumbent Yadira Caraveo leads epublican Gabe Evans by 0.44 precentage points (90% counted).

Iowa (CD1) – Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Christina Bohannon by 0.19 percentage points (more than 95% counted).

Maine (CD2) – Democratic incumbent Jared Golden leads Republican Austin Theriault by 0.19 percentage points. (more than 95% counted).

Ohio (CD9) – Democratic incumbent Marcy Kaptur leads Republican Derek Merrin by 0.33 percentage points (more than 95% counted).

Oregon (CD5) – Democrat Janette Bynum leads Republican incumbent Lori Chavez DeRemer by 3 percentage points (78% counted).

Washington (CD3) – Democrat incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez leads Republican Joe Kent by 4 percentage points (87% counted),

Every seat counts. And even if the Democrats fall short of the net gain of four seats needed to retake control of the House, every win that brings them closer to 218 reduces the GOP's power. Republican Speaker Mike Johnson has been unable to rein in his fractious caucus and had to call on Jeffries to muster Democratic to support must-pass legislation in the current session.

And as we've seen there's always the chance of unexpected vacancies occurring, resulting at least temporarily with a Speaker Jeffries holding the gavel.