GOP has won enough seats to secure House majority, but nine races remain undecided

Unfortunately, The Associated Press is reporting that the Republicans have won enough seats to secure a majority in the House of Representatives, completing an election sweep.

But just how big that majority will be remains undecided. And President-elect Donald Trump has muddied the waters by appointing three House Republicans to his administration, which leaves things in uncharted waters.

Right now, The AP has called 218 seats for Republicans and 208 for Democrats, which leaves nine seats undecided. The AP's count still includes former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz's seat.

The Democrats needed to flip four seats to hand the Speaker's gavel to Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

So far, at least 13 House seats have changed parties as of Wednesday morning – Republicans have flipped seven seats, while Democrats gained six seats, according to CBS News projections.

What's noteworthy is that three of the Republican gains came in North Carolina (6th District, 13th District and 14th District). As Vox noted the Tar Heel state went "from having one of the fairest maps in the country to its most biased" with "voters of color ... among the big victims."

After the 2020 census, the North Carolina Supreme Court ruled that drawing maps to entrench the party in power violated the state constitution. In the 2022 midterms, using fair maps, each party won seven House seats using fair maps. But in the midterms, Republicans won a majority on the state's highest court and the ruling was overturned, allowing the state legislature to enact an extreme gerrymander.

So let's look at the nine undecided races based on results published in The New York Times. Democrats are leading in five of the races, Republicans in four.

Two California Democratic incumbents, Rep. Josh Harder (9th District) and Jim Costa (21st CD), have comfortable leads with more than 80% of the vote counted in each district.

In Oregon's 5th CD, Democrat Janelle Bynum leads by more than 9,500 votes over Republican incumbent, Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer with 93% of the vote counted. That would be a Democratic pickup, which would even out the number of seat changes.

In two other races, Democratic incumbents lead by razor-thin margins. In Ohio's 9th District, Rep. Marcy Kaptur leads by 1,193 votes with nearly all of the estimated vote total reported.

In Maine's 2nd District, Rep. Jared Golden has a 726-vote lead over Republican challenger Austin Theriault. Maine uses ranked-choice voting if no candidate gains more than 50% in the first round. The only other votes cast were 1,223 write-ins, so it's unlikely that Theriault would be able to overcome Golden's lead. Any write-in votes that did not include a second choice are not counted.

So if the leads hold up, Democrats are in good position to claim 213 seats.

In the other four races, three Republican incumbents are narrowly leading, and one Democratic incumbent is in danger of losing.

The endangered Democrat is Rep. Mary Peltola (Alaska-at-large). She trails Republican Nick Begich by 9,435 votes with 94% of the vote counted. Alaska's Division of Elections said Wednesday that 26,000 votes remain to be counted.

If neither Begich nor Peltola gets more than 50% of the vote, the winner would then be decided by the state’s ranked choice tabulation process on Nov. 20.

In Iowa's 1st District, GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democratic challenger Christine Bohannon by 802 votes, with nearly all of the estimated vote total reported.

In slow-counting California, two Republican incumbents appear vulnerable. In the 13th District, Republican Rep. John Duarte leads Democrat Adam Gray by 3,765 votes with 74% of the vote counted. It's neck-and-neck in the 45th District with Republican Rep. Michelle Steel leading Democratic challenger Derek Tran by only 349 votes.

So where does that leave us. Democrats could end up with anywhere from 213 to 217 seats, depending on the outcome of the four races in which Republicans are leading. And correspondingly Republicans could hold anywhere from 222 to 218 seats. If I were to make a prediction the Democrats would likely finish with 214 or 215 seats (+1).

And here's where Trump has muddied the waters. Speaker Mike Johnson has pleaded with the president-elect not to appoint any more GOP House members to his administration.

Gaetz resigned his House seat on Wednesday right after Trump nominated him for Attorney General. Some Republican House members also believe his resignation might have been tied to a pending Ethics Committee report investigating several allegations, including that Gaetz engaged in sex with a minor. The report likely won't be publicly released now that Gaetz is no longer a member of Congress.

Even if his nomination for Attorney General goes down in flames, Gaetz won't be a member of the new Congress that convenes on Jan. 3.

Then Florida Rep. Mike Waltz (6th District) will be taking up the post of National Security Adviser when Trump reoccupies the White House on Jan. 20. That post does not require Senate confirmation.

And New York Rep. Elisse Stefanik (21st District) will be taking up the post of U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations once she receives Senate confirmation. In New York, special elections to fill a House seat typically happen about three months after the resignation, the Utica Observer-Dispatch reported.

The Florida Politics website reported that DeSantis will rush to set up Special Elections for the two seats in deep-red districts with all possible speed, but Primary and General Elections are required. By contrast when Democratic Rep. Alcee Hastings died in April 2021, DeSantis allowed nine months to pass until the Special Election was held to replace him.

So it's possible that there could be three House vacancies just weeks after the new Congress convenes. That would drop the number of seats required for a majority from 218 to 217.

It's not likely that there will be a Speaker Jeffries even temporarily. But the fractious House GOP caucus will have an even slimmer majority and probably need Democratic support, as in the current Congress, to get must-pass legislation approved, giving Jeffries some leverage.

Jeffries told MSNBC on Wednesday:

"There is no doubt, we cannot sugar coat it that last Tuesday’s result was a setback  in the eyes of tens of millions of Americans ... But a setback , in my view, is nothing more than a setup for a comeback. and we’ve got to make sure that as has always been the case whenever America confronts adversity, we come back through the moment to come out stronger on the other side. And that's what we're committed to do as House Democrats on behalf of the American people."