House update: GOP 218 - Democrats 212, with 5 races undecided

So let's take a look at where things stand in races for seats in the House of Representatives.

The Republicans will retain control of the House. The GOP has 218 seats to 212 for the Democrats. That tally includes seat won in Florida's 1st District by Matt Gaetz, who resigned the current Congress after President Donald Trump nominated him to be Attorney General.

The latest calls were all holds for Democratic incumbents – Josh Harder in California's 9th District, Jim Costa in California's 21st District, and Jared Golden in a squeaker in Maine's 2nd District.

Golden was declared the winner over Republican Austin Theriault on Friday night after several days of ranked choice vote tabulation after neither candidate surpassed 50% of first place votes.

Democrats needed to flip four seats to gain control of the House. So far each party has flipped seven seats, so there has been zero gain for either party.

And now only five House races remain undecided. If you were to look at the trend lines, Democrats are likely end up with 214 or 215 seats (+1).

So let's look more closely at these races based on local news reports.

Alaska (at-large) – Republican Nick Begich leads Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola by a margin of 48.9% to 45.9% with nearly all of the estimated vote total reported. If Begich fails to receive over 50% of the final ballot tally, the winner of the race will be determined by ranked choice tabulation which is planned to take place on Wednesday. Begich is expected to win the race, which would be a Republican pickup.

California 13th District – Republican Rep. John Duarte leads Democrat Adam Gray by 2,004 votes with 87% of the vote counted. In 2022, Gray lost by less than 600 votes. This race is likely to go down to the wire, but it's a possible Democratic pickup.

California 45th District – With 93% of the vote counted, Republican Rep, Michelle Steel's lead has shrunk to 58 votes over Democratic challenger Derek Tran, who would be the first Vietnamese-American to represent Orange County's Little Saigon in Congress. Steel led by 11,000 votes on Election Day. This is considered a likely Democratic pickup.

Iowa 1st District – Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Christina Bohannan by 801 votes with nearly all the estimated vote total reported. Bohannan is seeking a recount in the tight race, but this is an expected Republican hold.

Ohio 1st District – Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, the longest serving woman in House history, leads Republican challenger Derek Merrin by 1,193 votes with nearly all of the estimated vote total reported. This is an expected Democratic hold.

Trump has picked three Republicans who won election to the House to serve in his administration.

Gaetz resigned his House seat after Trump nominated him for Attorney General. Some Republican House members also believe his resignation might have been tied to a pending Ethics Committee report investigating several allegations, including that Gaetz engaged in sex with a minor. The report likely won't be publicly released now that Gaetz is no longer a member of Congress.

Florida Rep. Mike Waltz (6th District) will be taking up the post of National Security Adviser when Trump reoccupies the White House on Jan. 20. That post does not require Senate confirmation.

And New York Rep. Elisse Stefanik (21st District) will be taking up the post of U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations once she receives Senate confirmation. In New York, special elections to fill a House seat typically happen about three months after the resignation, the Utica Observer-Dispatch reported.

The Florida Politics website reported that DeSantis will rush to set up Special Elections for the two seats in deep-red districts with all possible speed, but Primary and General Elections are required. By contrast when Democratic Rep. Alcee Hastings died in April 2021, DeSantis allowed nine months to pass until the Special Election was held to replace him.

But it's unlikely that we will see a Speaker Hakeem Jeffries even temporarily. In the worst case scenario, the Republicans could always delay the Senate confirmation of Stefanik

As things stand, even with three vacancies the Republicans would have either 218 or 217 seats enough to retain their majority by the slenderest of threads.