House Update: GOP 219, Democrats 213, with 3 races undecided

And then there were three undecided races for seats in the House of Representatives.

Since my last update, two more House races were called. Republican Mike Begich flipped the Alaska at-large seat held by Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola, and Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur held on to win Ohio's 1st District.

So the GOP now has 219 seats to 213 for the Democrats. That tally includes the seat won in Florida's 1st District by Matt Gaetz, who has resigned from the current Congress.

Because neither Begich or Peltola received more than 50 percent of the vote initially, the Alaska House race was decided by ranked-choice voting. Begich ended up with 51.3% to Peltola's 48.7%.

Peltola's victory over a split GOP field in 2022 led Republicans to push for a repeal of Alaska's ranked choice voting and open primary system. A ballot measure that would have done away with the state's new voting process was defeated by a 664-vote margin.

Kaptur, 78, was able to continue her streak as the  longest-serving woman in House history by eking out a narrow victory over Republican state Rep. Derek Merrin. Kaptur led Merrin by 2,382 votes in the northwest Ohio district.

Democrats needed to flip four seats to gain control of the House. So far the GOP has flipped eight seats to seven for the Democrats.

A recount is under way in Iowa's 1st District where Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks held an 801-vote lead over Democratic challenger Christina Bohannon. The district includes Iowa City, Davenport and rural southeast Iowa.

County auditors told the Quad City Times that they do not expect the recount to show large differences from the canvassed tallies in their counties. So this race is an expected GOP hold once the recount results are announced.

The other two undecided races – in California's 13th and 45th Districts – are possible Democratic flips. In both races, the trend has favored the Democratic challengers as mail ballots are counted

The Los Angeles Daily News wrote this about the race in the 45th District, which covers southeastern Los Angeles County, as well as northeastern Orange County.

Democratic challenger Derek Tran continued to extend his lead over Republican Rep. Michelle Steel — although the margin between them remained unchanged at just 0.2 percentage points on Thursday. Tran led by 480 votes, according to the Secretary of State’s website. Tran had 156,576 votes (50.1%) while Steel had 156,096 votes (49.9%).

At one point after the election, Steel was ahead by roughly 11,000 votes. But Tran managed to close that gap and overtook Steel in the vote count on Saturday — the first time since Election Day. He has since gradually increased his lead.

As of Thursday evening, 93% of the votes had been tallied, with about 26,000 votes remaining to be counted, according to NBC News.

Tran would be the first Vietnamese-American to represent Orange County's Little Saigon in Congress. Steel is a Korean-American.

In California's 13th District, GOP Rep. John Duarte has seen his lead over Democratic challenger Adam Gray shrink to 194 votes as of Thursday evening. NBC News reported that about 3,500 votes remain to be counted. The same candidates faced each other in 2022 in the central California district with Duarte winning by 564 votes.

So in the best-case scenario, if those two California seats are flipped, Democrats would end up with 215 seats – a gain of one seat.

President-elect Donald Trump has muddied the waters when he picked Gaetz and two other Republicans who won election to the House to serve in his administration.

Gaetz resigned his seat in the current Congress "effective immediately" after Trump nominated him for Attorney General. But on Thursday, Gaetz withdrew his bid for attorney general as he came under scrutiny for sexual misconduct allegations, including accusations that he had sex with a minor. He has denied the allegations.

In his resignation letter from Congress, Gaetz added: "I do not intend to take the oath of office for the same office in the 119th Congress," the Huffington Post reported.

But HuffPost wrote that it's possible he could rescind his intention not to take the seat he was elected to be an overwhelming margin in Florida's 1st District. But there is no precedent for this, and HuffPost described the situation as "murky" because there are competing legal analyses for the situation which could result in a lawsuit.

The House could refuse to seat him or seat him and then expel him. Expulsion would require a two-thirds vote.

But Gaetz has good reason not to go back on his resignation which stopped the release of a report by the House Ethics Committee on its investigation into allegations of sexual misconduct and illegal drug use. Gaetz has denied the allegations. But the ethics investigation would become live again were he to reclaim his seat.

So it's unclear what Gaetz might do next. If he doesn't return to Congress, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis would call a special election to fill the seat.

DeSantis will also have to call another special election for the seat held by Rep. Michael Waltz, who will become National Security Adviser when Trump reoccupies the White House on Jan. 20. His position does not require Senate confirmation.

And New York Rep. Elisse Stefanik (21st District) will be taking up the post of U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations once she receives Senate confirmation. In New York, special elections to fill a House seat typically happen about three months after the resignation, the Utica Observer-Dispatch reported.

So in the first 100 days of the Trump administration, it's possible that the House GOP could be operating with a 217 to 215 margin – and we've already seen just how dysfunctional the House GOP caucus is.