House Update: GOP 220, Democrats 214, with 1 race undecided

And now there is only one remaining undecided race for the House of Representatives.

Since my last update, two more House races have been called. Democratic challenger Derek Tran was declared the winner over Republican Rep. Michelle Steel in California's 45th District. And after a recount in Iowa's 1st District, Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks as expected, turned back a challenge from Democrat Christina Bohannon.

So the GOP now has 220 seats to 214 for the Democrats. That tally includes the seat won in Florida's 1st District by Matt Gaetz, who has resigned from the current Congress.

Democrats needed to gain four seats to get a House majority. So far each party has flipped eight seats.

The only undecided race is in California's 13th District where there is a good chance for a Democratic flip. As of Wednesday evening, Democrat Adam Gray has a 190-vote lead over Republican Rep. John Duarte, with nearly all of the estimated vote total reported. The same candidates faced each other in 2022 with Duarte winning by 564 votes in the Central Valley district, which includes Fresno, Merced and Modesto.

So, the incoming House is likely to end up with 220 Republicans to 215 Democrats if Gray's lead holds up.

Tran, a consumer rights attorney, declared victory in a statement released on Monday. He wrote:

This victory is a testament to the spirit and resilience of our community. As the son of Vietnamese refugees, I understand firsthand the journey and sacrifices many families in our district have made for a better life. My parents came to this country to escape oppression and pursue the American Dream, and their story reflects the journey of so many here in Southern California.

Throughout this campaign, I heard from voters who wanted representation that prioritizes our community’s unique challenges. From the need for affordable healthcare and housing to the importance of an economy that includes everyone, people here are looking to the future with hope and determination. “I look forward to representing that optimism and working tirelessly to ensure that our communities’ voices are heard in Washington.”

As of Wednesday evening, Tran held a 596-vote lead over Steel, a Korean-American, in the district . At one point after the election, Steel led by about 11,000 votes, but as mail ballots were counted, Tran overtook his Republican opponent and gradually increased his lead.

Tran would be the first Vietnamese-American to represent Orange County's Little Saigon in Congress. The 45th District, which spans parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties, is home to a large Asian American and Pacific Islander population, who represent about 40% of all residents, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. 

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, in a post on X, formerly Twitter, offered up a baseless conspiracy theory. She wrote: "Democrats are stealing a House seat right out from under us in CA ... We have to stop election rigging, this is a continuing battle."

But Steel was having none of that. She conceded the race on Wednesday in a statement posted on X.

In Iowa, Miller-Meeks held her seat after a recount confirmed her lead in the district that includes Iowa City, Davenport and rural southeast Iowa. The final tally showed her winning the race by 798 votes. The Associated Press reported that the margin was much tighter this year than in 2022 when Miller-Meeks defeated Bohannon by 7 percentage points.

Bohannon conceded the race in a statement released Wednesday after the recount results were announced:

 I congratulate Mariannette Miller-Meeks on her victory. In her next term, I hope she will listen to Iowans and deliver for the hardworking people who depend on her to represent them.

Although this is not the result we wanted, I am so proud of our campaign. We exceeded all expectations and turned a district that many pundits thought was unwinnable into one of the very closest races in the country. But what’s more important is that this was a campaign of values. We stood up to the political establishment and corporate special interests that have taken advantage of hardworking Iowans for far too long. We fought for our fundamental freedoms and for an economy where people who work hard can not only get by, but get ahead.

When the new Congress convenes in January, the House GOP caucus will be down to 219 seats because Gaetz has said he doesn't intend to claim the seat he won in November in Florida's 1st district. Gaetz was nominated by President-elect Donald Trump for the post of attorney general, but withdrew his bid as he came under scrutiny for sexual misconduct allegations, including accusations that he had sex with a minor. He has denied the allegations.

Trump has tapped two other House Republicans for positions in his administration.

Rep. Michael Waltz, who represents Florida's 6th District, will become National Security Adviser after Trump takes office on Jan. 20. His position does not require Senate confirmation.

New York Rep. Elisse Stefanik (21st District) will be taking up the post of U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations once she receives Senate confirmation.

Florida Secretary of State Cord Byrd has set the dates for special elections to fill the seats in Florida's 1st and 6th districts. The special primary election will be held on Jan. 28 and the special general election on April 1.

In New York, special elections to fill a House seat typically happen about three months after the resignation, the Utica Observer-Dispatch reported.

All three seats are in heavily Republican districts.

So in the first months of the Trump administration, it's possible that the House GOP could be operating with a 217 to 215 majority – and we've already seen how dysfunctional and fractious the House GOP caucus can be.

CNN's Harry Enten wrote in a Wednesday post on X:

“My goodness gracious: the GOP's House Majority looks to be the smallest after any election since 1930 with current results. With resignations (e.g. Gaetz), it may be the smallest majority during a House session in 100+ yrs. Just 1 GOP defection + All Dems could sink a bill.”