New poll finds more than a third of Haley voters are ready to dump Trump for Harris

A new poll finds that slightly over a third of self-identified Nikki Haley voters say they're ready todump Trump and vote for Vice President Kamala Harris.

The survey results were shared exclusively with The Bulwark, a center-right opinion website launched by Never-Trump conservative Sarah Longwell. Its contributors include Bill Kristol, Tim Miller and Charlie Sykes.

Sam Stein and Mark A. Caputo, in a story posted by The Bulwark, wrote:

If the election were held today, Donald Trump would win just 45 percent of those who backed Haley in the GOP primary while 36 percent said they’d back Harris, the new poll shows, according to the survey of 781 registered Republicans and independents conducted by the new Democratic-leaning polling outfit Blueprint. The poll did not include Democrats or Democrat-leaning Independents who supported Haley.

Trump’s level of support from Haley voters in the poll represents a significant drop in support for Trump, who won those same voters against Joe Biden by 59-28 percent. That 22 percentage point change in preference (from plus 31 percent for Trump in 2020 to plus 9 percent in this survey) could represent a swing of millions of votes.

The findings are among the most substantive analyses of Haley supporters. They come on the heels of a New York Times/Siena College poll showing that Harris has made major inroads among GOP voters, with 9 percent saying they planned to support the vice president, up from 5 percent from a survey last month.

Evan Roth Smith, the lead pollster for Blueprint, told The Bulwark that “between 5 and 10 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are Nikki Haley supporters.”

“If Harris can indeed win a third or more of them in the general election, it will provide a boost of a couple percentage points. In such a close race where the margin of victory will be razor-thin, particularly in the swing states, it’s clearly worth pursuing these voters,” Smith said.

The poll, conducted between Sept. 28 and Oct. 6, had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

Harris has reached out to disaffected Republicans. Last week, she appeared with former Rep. Liz Cheney, who has endorsed the Democratic nominee, at a campaign event in Ripon, Wis., the birthplace of the Republican Party in 1854.

The Harris campaign also put out this ad last week with former officials from the Trump administration to emphasize the theme that Trump is a threat to our country's national security.

The former South Carolina governor dropped out of the presidential race in early March right after she lost every state except Vermont on Super Tuesday. But a chunk of the electorate still voted for the former U.N. ambassador in subsequent GOP primaries. Haley did end up endorsing Trump and spoke at the Republican National Convention.

The Bulwark story noted that Haley has not yet appeared with Trump on the campaign trail, but a Trump adviser said she has recorded a robocall urging her supporters to back the GOP candidate and may take part in some campaign events either with Trump or as a surrogate.

Blueprint's own website offered a detailed breakdown of the poll results.

It found that among the biggest concern expressed by Haley voters about Trump is that his character is erratic (57% say this describes their concerns about Trump “very well”). It found 39% of Haley voters consider Harris to be more competent than the alternative.

Other negative traits associated with Trump are that he is too old to lead (net +46) and is too selfish to lead (+33). Harris is viewed as being young enough (net +44), having compassion (+23) and having integrity (+21).

And Blueprint's survey found that for Haley voters, Harris had her two biggest net trust margins over Trump on the issues of climate change and the environment (net +34 percent) and abortion (+29), while her two biggest negative margins were on inflation (-29) and immigration (-38).

The survey found that the biggest concern of Haley voters regard Harris' policies rather than her character. About half of Haley voters felt that her policies are too extreme and don't align with their views.

The results led Blueprint to conclude:

Haley voters are a group in flux, emerging as one of the most pivotal and unpredictable groups in this election. At the heart of this volatility is a significant erosion of Trump’s support. In 2020, 59% of Haley voters (64% of Haley Republicans; 48% of Haley independents) voted for Trump, but only 45% (49% of Haley Republicans; 38% of Haley independents) plan to do so again in 2024. 

This shift represents a crucial opportunity for Democrats, particularly Kamala Harris, to make inroads with this group. However, the path forward is complex: Haley voters harbor deep concerns about Harris’s policies, viewing them as too extreme—yet they view her competence and character more favorably than Trump’s erratic leadership style.

And lead pollster Smith observed:

“Nikki Haley voters are up for grabs for Kamala Harris. They’re fed up with Trump’s chaos but skeptical of Kamala Harris’s policies, presenting an opportunity for the Harris campaign to close that gap. The bottom line: these voters are a home-run opportunity this October, but only if the right pitch is made.”

Now what the right pitch might be is a whole other question. It doesn't necessarily mean that Harris must move towards the center on policy issues. She may gain ground on such issues as immigration and inflation with more persuasive arguments. And climate change might come more into play as a top priority in the aftermath of Hurricanes Helene and Milton.

It's also clear that Trump is in a downward spiral and is only becoming more of an erratic chaos agent.