Ukraine update: Putin, Trump, Musk and the new axis of power

Within minutes of the first network declaring that Donald Trump had won the 2024 election, Vladimir Putin had issued a public congratulations. For Putin and Russia, Trump's win was their win.

On the other hand, one of the first calls that Trump received after declaring victory came from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who phoned to not just give his congratulations, but remind Trump that Ukraine was America's ally and a vital bulwark on the flank of Europe.

There's no question why Putin cheered. There's also no wonder about why Zelenskyy called. A titanic struggle that has resulted in the death of hundreds of thousands and the displacement of millions now stands on the razor's edge.

Trump has repeatedly made it clear that he doesn't want another dime of U.S. support going to Ukraine, that he admires Putin, and that he has disdain for the entire idea of the NATO alliance. Given that combination, and Trump's insistence that he can "end the war within a day," it's easy to believe that Zelenskyy will soon be facing an ultimatum from Trump to take whatever deal his pal Vladimir is willing to give and be happy with any scraps left behind.

At best, Putin is likely to extend a deal that would give him all the land now occupied by Russian forces, a promise that Ukraine would never seek membership in NATO, an end to Zelenskyy's government, and a reduction in the Ukrainian military that would leave it a walkover in any renewed conflict. That's the low end.

At worst, the Russian dictator may simply demand it all, converting Ukraine into either an extension of Russia or a subservient state like Belarus.

However, here's the important point that too many outlets seem to overlook: Whatever "solution" Trump has in mind, Zelenskyy does not have to take it.

Putin has been trying to impose his will on Ukraine since 2014. Trump can not make Ukraine surrender.

All Trump can do is make the struggle harder, make the losses greater, and make the outcome less certain. But as much as he may believe he owns everything, he can't give away Ukraine any more than he can swap Puerto Rico for Greenland.

On Thursday, the Biden administration was preparing to rush the last traunch of assistance to Ukraine. The Pentagon and administration officials understand that there's no time to waste and that the process has to be accelerated. They're treating this as an emergency, seeing that $4.3 billion of existing weapons are boxed up and on their way. There's another $2.1 billion set aside for materiel (largely artillery shells) still being manufactured. Everything that can be done to accelerate the production and shipping of those supplies is being done.

After that, the only U.S. involvement in Putin's illegal, unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is likely to be Trump trying to broker a deal on behalf of his Russian pal and complaining about Zelenskyy's stubbornness.

“The first thing [Trump] would do is to roll back assistance to Ukraine,” said Jim Townsend, a former top Pentagon official for NATO and Europe during the Obama administration. “I would expect him to make a big show of that. He’d say ‘promise kept,’ but he’s going to halt it early, I’m certain of it.”

The next act is going to be largely up to Europe. And it's going to be difficult. With the German government in crisis, French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will have to carry much of the burden of supporting Ukraine. But they and other European leaders are likely to step up, even though devoting more money to defense is highly unpopular in many European countries.

They have to step up because this isn't only about Ukraine. Russia is in alliance with China, Iran, and North Korea. With Trump's victory, other nations—including some of the members of the growing BRICS economic alliance—may be encouraged to take a more overt role in supporting Putin's military aggression.

There is a lot of long-simmering, deeply felt resentment out there toward what's perceived as a smug, complacent, self-satisfied West. It's not at all inconceivable that other state actors may see this as an opportunity, and Putin as an instrument, to drive that resentment home. Trump's election makes the threat greater.

But for Ukraine—and the world—there's another threat. One that may be even greater than Trump.

Because when Zelenskyy spoke with Trump on Wednesday, someone else joined the call. After a conversation with Trump that supposedly left Zelenskyy feeling relieved that he wasn't immediately going to press Ukraine to surrender ...

[Elon] Musk also weighed in during the call to say he will continue supporting Ukraine through his Starlink satellites, the sources said. Musk did not respond to a request for comment.

Starlink has been crucial to Ukraine's war effort, though Musk has also mocked Zelenskyy's requests for U.S. aid, and Zelenskyy rebuked the billionaire for proposing a peace plan of his own in 2022.

That 2022 plan from Musk happened to be almost word-for-word the plan that Russia had tried to force on Ukraine during failed negotiations in Belarus earlier in the year. It would have both handed Putin territory and left Ukraine in a state where it could never defend itself against further attack.

Musk may have been saying what Zelenskyy wanted to hear on Wednesday, but there is more than an implicit threat in what the world's richest man had to say. Having freshly demonstrated that he can ignore ignore regulations, directly pay Americans for the promise of their vote, and purchase the world's most powerful government, Musk was simply reminding Zelenskyy that, while he can live without Trump, it would be much harder if Musk just ... flipped a switch.

Musk already turned off Starlink in the middle of a Ukrainian operation that could have had a significant impact on the war. And it's clear, both on the battlefield and in his phone calls, that the SpaceX CEO has been playing both sides.

The utility of Starlink in areas where power and infrastructure are disrupted is undeniable. And it's easy to see why, right from the start of Putin's invasion, Ukraine was willing to place more and more of its eggs in Musk's communication basket. That was especially true with Musk mouthing promises of support and before it was widely known that he had been having regular chats with the author of the invasion.

But there is absolutely nothing to keep Musk from selectively enabling or disabling Starlink to advantage whichever side he favors. He's already done it. There's also no guarantee that Musk isn't sharing information sent through Starlink, or providing Putin with the location of Starlink dishes on the ground. Using Starlink means trusting Musk with the lives of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians.

The control that Musk now has over the battlefield in Ukraine is exactly why Americans should be terrified of how our military has contracted with Musk for a supposedly secure version of Starlink for its own communications. And it's why everyone in the world should be sweating SpaceX's dominance of the launch industry.

Yes, SpaceX recoverable Falcon launchers and the enormous Starship currently in development represent undeniable technological advances. Yes, they place mankind on a path to being able to access the fathomless resources of the Solar System. The problem is that it's not really mankind. It's just one man.

And now that man may decide the future of both Ukraine and the U.S. Trump can only threaten to cut off aid. But Trump and Musk together are a much greater threat.

While Biden is scrambling to see that every missile, drone, and shell possible makes it into Ukraine before Trump slams the door, Zelenskyy should be hurrying to see that other forms of communication are in place before Musk throws the switch.

Oh, and Trump didn't just promise to end the Ukraine war within a day. He promised that he would end the war within a day of being elected.

Mark that down as his first failure of his second term.