Ukraine update: The worst idea since the invasion began

We're closing in on three years since Vladimir Putin ordered the tanks across the border in his second illegal, unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. In that time, Russia has suffered over three-quarters of a million casualties, lost over 9,500 tanks, and expended untold numbers of artillery shells to make a fragment of Ukraine utterly unlivable.

Though Russian forces continue to grind forward while suffering heavy losses Putin's dream of a rapid conquest remains a dream—one that has been thwarted by the unbroken resistance of Ukraine's people and their leader, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

With Russia suffering an enormous defeat in Syria, and as the central government's ability to prop up a failing economy weakens, the cost of Putin's foolish invasion in men, machines, resources, prestige, and wealth is nearing the point where the term "culminating point" might seriously enter the discussion—if not now, then within the next few months.

The best hope for Vladimir Putin at this point isn't a victory on the battlefield; it's a paper victory delivered to him by Donald Trump. Unfortunately, that seems to be exactly where things are headed.

But how can we make that worse? What can we, as good Americans, do to make sure that everything about the Ukraine invasion proceeds in the worst imaginable way and delivers the worst possible outcome?

Foreign Policy has it covered, and the headline says it all.

"Transpartisan" expert Anatol Lieven proposes that the proper way to end Putin's invasion is to look back to World War II. Not the end of that war–the beginning. Because Lieven wants Trump and Putin to get their Molotov-Ribbentrop on.

Given certain categorical—and entirely legitimate—Ukrainian positions, a number of key issues seem to be a priori off the table, and if Russia insists on them, no agreement will be possible. The most important initial task of Gen. Kellogg and his team will therefore be to discover whether the Russian government regards these conditions as nonnegotiable, or whether Moscow is prepared to compromise on them if the Trump administration is prepared to compromise on wider issues.

You see, Ukraine opposes being invaded and having its people murdered. It insists on the integrity of its borders, the security of its people, and its right to self-defense. How can anything get done as long as Ukraine is being so intransigent?

But it's not as if Lieven doesn't have a reason for why Trump and Putin should just get out a pen and draw the new borders for a country neither of them has any legal right to define. Ukraine has to be helped to see that it should surrender territory rather than "be encouraged and helped by Washington to batter itself to pieces in a hopeless effort to drive Russia from the territory it controls." And the U.S. can apparently best serve that goal by promising to veto the entry of Ukraine into NATO, withdrawing U.S. military support, and make it clear to Putin that there won't be any significant military force provided to safeguard against renewed Russian advances.

It might be possible to write a more patronizing, belittling proposal. But it would be difficult.

Ukraine is an ally of the United States. It was illegally attacked by an aggressive, expansionist Russia in a devastating war that has brought enormous hardship. It is the victim of this crime against humanity, not the author, and its leaders are full adults capable of making their own decisions for their own people.

The United States should not even speak to Putin regarding this war unless it has some message to bring to Moscow from the Kyiv government.

Until that happens, the only thing any U.S. representative should have to say to Vladimir Putin is "Get the f**k out of Ukraine."

Because this process will be so difficult, the sad but unavoidable truth may be that if Ukraine takes part in the talks from the start, progress toward a settlement will become completely impossible. Every prospective compromise will immediately be leaked and will cause a firestorm of protest in Europe, in Ukraine, in the U.S. Congress, in the U.S. media, and perhaps even from Russian hardliners.

In other words, we have to hide what we're doing from Ukraine until we're certain that we have a deal that Trump and Putin (and presumably Elon Musk) can sign. We wouldn't want to upset Ukraine by letting them know how much of their country we were giving away or how little was being done to prevent Putin's Invasion 3.0.

What Lieven is proposing is absolutely the equivalent of the police going to the criminals and negotiating just how much crime they're going to allow. His arguments against involving Ukraine in the discussion might as well be “As long as she insists on not being raped, how can we get anywhere?”

This has been the year for some truly outstanding media failures, and with major outlets falling over themselves to prove how willing they are to drink Trump's orange-tinted bathwater, there are still plenty of opportunities for something even worse in the next two weeks. But at this moment, Foreign Policy has to get the Anti-Pulitzer for the most obscenely awful proposal of 2024.

Right from the headline that describes this conflict as Ukraine's war, there's a commitment to the theme that Russia's desires are to be respected, while Ukraine's needs can be dictated. Decorating that theme by repeating that "it's sad" does not make it better.

If there's expertise behind this article, it's in a form I cannot recognize.

Pokrovsk

On the ground in eastern Donetsk, Russia continues its advance on the key city of Povrosk. Over the last week, Russian forces have broadened the salient that pushed out through Zhovte on the south of the city and advanced up the highway to the north. On Dec 8, Russia captured most of Shevchenko, the last sizable suburb on the south edge of Povrosk.

So far, Russia has not advanced its forces on the east along the line between Krasnyi Yar and Lysivka. In fact, there were reports this week of Ukrainian forces pushing back south of Krasnyi Yar to dispute territory Russia has occupied for weeks. It's unclear if that's the beginning of a larger movement or just a tactical repositioning.

However, the fight for Shevchenko doesn't appear to be completely over.

Meanwhile, in the Kursk region of Russia, Ukraine has essentially held ground over the last week despite a significant (but failed) Russian attack near the border between the two countries. The biggest significant factor in this area is that everyone seems to agree that North Korean troops are engaged in the attempts to dislodge Ukrainian forces in Kursk—and it's not going well for them.

There are some genuinely disturbing images coming out of this area, including shots of what appear to be Russian troops burning bodies of fallen North Koreans. I'm not going to share those images.

Russian general killed in Moscow

In one of those actions that has to make other Russian generals—and members of Putin's government—feel a little queasy, Lt. Gen Igor Kirillov was killed by an explosion in the streets of Moscow.

Two men had been leaving a residential building when the blast happened. It was 6.12am. One was Lt Gen Igor Kirillov, the head of the Russian army’s chemical weapons division. Kirillov was a key player in Moscow’s ruthless war against Ukraine. The other was Kirillov’s assistant. Video shows their last moments as they walked into the street. Both appear to have died instantly.

Kirillov was a vocal proponent of Putin's invasion and has been accused of deploying chemical weapons in Ukraine.

The explosion took place in an area of Moscow with many high end apartments and shopping areas set aside for the government elite. Ukraine's ability to successfully carry off such an operation in the Russian capital can only be read as a sign of weakness on the part of Russian security forces.